CONTROL OF COVID-19: A COUNTER FACTUAL ANALYSIS
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Abstract
The counter factual study represents that how a nation like India with special reference to Himachal Pradesh, can adopt, adapt and adept significant national and international approaches followed by the countries and regions to address the COVID-19 pandemic. The paper analyses the two strategies Strategy 1: People being encouraged to stay at home and indulge in frequent washing of their hands and maintaining hygiene; Strategy 2: From rate cuts to quarantines, public officials being pushed to respond to the corona virus along with three Levels (I,II,III) of stringency in the India in general and Himachal Pradesh in specific and its impact on the Covid-19 containment has also been analysed.
The average rate of, COVID-19 tests per million, New Cases, Cases Recovered, Active Cases (%), Recovery rate (%) and Mortality rate (%) has been studied in detail against the stringency parameters. The data represents the position prior to Covid-19 pandemic, the achievement over the period of time via timely intervention and stringent strategies. The study represents that India is lucky to learn from the experience of other countries who are fighting or have fought COVID -19 pandemic. The data availability and experiences of other countries in hand although challenges of India are different, still India could replicate the best practices followed by the nations such as South Korea and China besides the indigenous Kerala model. Bringing further the point, it is pertinent to mention that Wuhan was under complete lock down, entirely cut off from the rest of China, till the number of positive cases were reduced to Zero. South Korea was so aggressive in its Covid-19 testing that almost every citizen was screened to rule out undetected and asymptomatic cases. Is India Going In the right direction in its fight against Covid-19?
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