African Swine Fever Disease Risk Assessment Using Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis: An Input for GIS-Based Risk Mapping
Abstract
African Swine Fever (ASF) has severely impacted the Philippines' pig industry, caused socioeconomic losses, and affected income, supply, demand, and prices. There needs to be more understanding regarding the risk factors associated with ASF introduction into pig farms and the level of risk each farm faces. Accordingly, using a quantitative research method, this study used the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) to categorize ASF risk factors into biosecurity and spatial risk factors. Twenty-five (25) respondents were selected using a purposive participatory approach to rank the importance level of each risk factor as per the two risk factor categories. The AHP analysis revealed that the highest-risk biosecurity factors are the "absence of protocols for changing clothes, separate entry and exit, disinfection of objects, restriction on food introduction, and external individuals accessing the farms." In the spatial risk factor ranking, the analysis showed that the “distance to pig farms utilizing swill feeding" was the highest risk factor, indicating its significant contribution to the overall risk of farms. A farm risk assessment was also performed based on the AHP results and the level of compliance of each farm on the different risk factors. The study was conducted on selected pig farms in the municipality of Echague by evaluating their compliance with the identified risk factors and determining the level of risk they posed. The risk assessment results for African swine fever on farms reveal a concerning scenario. With 70% of farms assessed as "high risk" in terms of biosecurity and 74% classified as "medium risk" in spatial vulnerability, the overall assessment indicates that 84% of farms are at a moderate risk level. This suggests a widespread need for improved biosecurity practices and disease monitoring to prevent the introduction and spread of African swine fever. The 16% of farms deemed "high risk" pose a significant threat, requiring immediate action to prevent disease outbreaks. These findings emphasize the importance of implementing stringent biosecurity measures, enhancing surveillance efforts, and raising awareness to safeguard the pig industry from the devastating impacts of the ASF disease, like the rising cost of meat and pork-based commodities. Furthermore, these show the importance of considering the biosecurity and spatial risk factors for a more comprehensive risk assessment. The AHP ranking and risk assessment process is crucial in developing a GIS-based risk mapping and surveillance system. This offers government authorities a valuable decision-making tool to proactively prevent the introduction of African swine fever (ASF) and mitigate the necessity for widespread culling of pigs. By implementing targeted interventions informed by the study results, the government can work towards safeguarding the pig industry.
References
Asambe, A., Sackey, A. K. B., & Tekdek, L. B. (2018). Sanitary measures in piggeries, awareness, and risk factors of African swine fever in Benue State, Nigeria. Tropical Animal Health and Production, 51(4), 997–1001. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11250-018-1764-7
Bellini, S., Casadei, G., De Lorenzi, G., & Tamba, M. (2021). A Review of Risk Factors of African Swine Fever Incursion in Pig Farming within the European Union Scenario. Pathogens, 10(1), 84. https://doi.org/10.3390/pathogens10010084
Bergmann, H., Dups-Bergmann, J., Schulz, K., Probst, C., Zani, L., Fischer, M., Gethmann, J., Denzin, N., Blome, S., Conraths, F. J., & Sauter-Louis, C. (2022). Identification of risk factors for African swine fever: a Systematic review. Viruses, 14(10), 2107. https://doi.org/10.3390/v14102107
Bergmann, H., Schulz, K., Conraths, F. J., & Sauter-Louis, C. (2021a). A review of environmental risk factors for African swine fever in European wild boar. Animals, 11(9), 2692. https://doi.org/10.3390/ani11092692
Cadenas-Fernández, E., Ito, S., Aguilar-Vega, C., Sánchez-Vizcaíno, J. M., & Bosch, J. (2022). The role of the wild boar spreading African swine fever virus in Asia: another underestimated problem. Frontiers in Veterinary Science, 9, 844209. https://doi.org/10.3389/fvets.2022.844209
Dean, M. (2022). A practical guide to multi-criteria analysis a practical guide to multicriteria analysis. Dr Marco Dean Bartlett School of Planning, Univ. Coll. Lond. Jan. (2022). https://doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.15007.02722.
Gallardo, M. C., De La Torre Reoyo, A., Fernández-Pinero, J., Iglesias, I., Muñoz, M. J., & Arias, M. L. (2015). African swine fever: a global view of the current challenge. Porcine Health Management, 1, 21. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40813-015-0013-y
Herrera-Ibatá, D. M., Martínez-López, B., Quijada, D., Burton, K., & Mur, L. (2017). Quantitative approach for the risk assessment of African swine fever and Classical swine fever introduction into the United States through legal imports of pigs and swine products. PloS One, 12(8), e0182850. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0182850
Hsu, C., Montenegro, M., & Perez, A. (2023a). Space–Time dynamics of African swine fever spread in the Philippines. Microorganisms, 11(6), 1492. https://doi.org/10.3390/microorganisms11061492
Hsu, C., Schambow, R., Montenegro, M., Miclat-Sonaco, R., & Perez, A. (2023b). Factors affecting the spread, diagnosis, and control of African swine fever in the Philippines. Pathogens, 12(8), 1068. https://doi.org/10.3390/pathogens12081068
Jiménez-Ruiz, S., Laguna, E., Vicente, J., García-Bocanegra, I., Martínez-Guijosa, J., Cano-Terriza, D., Risalde, M. A., & Acevedo, P. (2022). Characterization and management of interaction risks between livestock and wild ungulates on outdoor pig farms in Spain. Porcine Health Management, 8, 2. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40813-021-00246-7
Juszkiewicz, M., Walczak, M., Woźniakowski, G., & Podgórska, K. (2023). African Swine Fever: Transmission, Spread, and Control through Biosecurity and Disinfection, Including Polish Trends. Viruses, 15(11), 2275. https://doi.org/10.3390/v15112275
Kim, Y., Park, B., & Kang, H. (2021). Control measures to African swine fever outbreak: Active response in South Korea, preparation for the future, and cooperation. Journal of Veterinary Science, 22(1), e13. https://doi.org/10.4142/jvs.2021.22.e13
Kruszyński, M., Śróda, K., Juszkiewicz, M., Siuda, D., Olszewska, M., & Woźniakowski, G. (2023). Nine years of African swine fever in Poland. Viruses, 15(12), 2325. https://doi.org/10.3390/v15122325
Lee, H. S., Dao, T. D., Huyen, L. T. T., Bui, V. N., Bui, A. N., Ngo, D. T., & Pham, U. B. (2022). Spatiotemporal analysis and assessment of risk factors in transmission of African swine fever along the major pig value chain in Lao Cai province, Vietnam. Frontiers in Veterinary Science, 9, 853825. https://doi.org/10.3389/fvets.2022.853825
Liu, Y., Zhang, X., Qi, W., Yang, Y., Liu, Z., An, T., Wu, X., & Chen, J. (2021). Prevention and control strategies of African swine fever and progress on pig farm repopulation in China. Viruses, 13(12), 2552. https://doi.org/10.3390/v13122552
Malakauskas, A., Schulz, K., Kukanauskaitė, I., Masiulis, M., Conraths, F. J., & Sauter-Louis, C. (2022a). African swine fever outbreaks in Lithuanian domestic pigs in 2019. Animals, 12(1), 115. ttps://doi.org/10.3390/ani12010115
Martínez-López, B., Perez, A. M., Feliziani, F., Rolesu, S., Mur, L., & Sánchez-Vizcaíno, J. M. (2015). Evaluation of the risk factors contributing to the African swine fever occurrence in Sardinia, Italy. Frontiers in Microbiology, 06, 314. https://doi.org/10.3389/fmicb.2015.00314
Mawi, C. (2017). Multi-criteria evaluation for citrus fruits land use suitability using AHP technique in Churachandpur district, Manipur. International Journal of Experimental Research and Review, 11, 10-20.
Nantima, N., Ocaido, M., Ouma, E., Davies, J., Dione, M., Okoth, E., Mugisha, A., & Bishop, R. (2015). Risk factors associated with occurrence of African swine fever outbreaks in smallholder pig farms in four districts along the Uganda-Kenya border. Tropical Animal Health and Production, 47(3), 589–595. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11250-015-0768-9
Report-64-current-situation-of-asf. (African Swine Fever (ASF) Report N°64: February 05 to February 18, 2021). Retrieved October 8, 2023, from https://www.woah.org/app/uploads/2021/03/report-64-current-situation-of-asf.pdf
Rogoll, L., Güttner, A., Schulz, K., Bergmann, H., Staubach, C., Conraths, F. J., & Sauter-Louis, C. (2023). Seasonal occurrence of African swine fever in wild boar and domestic pigs in EU member states. Viruses, 15(9), 1955. https://doi.org/10.3390/v15091955
Rusinà, A., Valentini, F., Scollo, A., Franceschini, G., Salvato, S., Cappa, V., Bellato, A., Mannelli, A., & Bellini, S. (2023). Semi-Quantitative risk assessment of African swine fever virus introduction in outdoor pig farms. Pathogens, 12(5), 709. https://doi.org/10.3390/pathogens12050709
Saaty, T. L. (2008). Decision making with the analytic hierarchy process. International Journal of Services Sciences, 1(1), 83. https://doi.org/10.1504/ijssci.2008.017590
Schettino, D., Perez, A., Lantigua, E., Beemer, O., Remmenga, M., Vanicek, C., Lopes, G., Arzt, J., & Reyes, R. (2023). Enhanced passive surveillance for early detection of African and classical swine fevers. Revista Científica Y Técnica - Oficina Internacional De Epizootias/Scientific and Technical Review - International Office of Epizootics/Revue Scientifique Et Technique - Office International Des Épizooties, 42, 149–160. https://doi.org/10.20506/rst.42.3358
Tavana, M., Soltanifar, M., & Santos-Arteaga, F. J. (2021). Analytical hierarchy process: revolution and evolution. Annals of Operation Research/Annals of Operations Research, 326(2), 879–907. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10479-021-04432-2
Thanapongtharm, W., Wongphruksasoong, V., Sangrat, W., Thongsrimoung, K., Ratanavanichrojn, N., Kasemsuwan, S., Khamsiriwatchara, A., Kaewkungwal, J., & Leelahapongsathon, K. (2022). Application of spatial risk assessment integrated with a mobile app in Fighting against the introduction of African swine fever in pig farms in Thailand: Development Study. JMIR Formative Research, 6(5), e34279. https://doi.org/10.2196/34279
Copyright (c) 2024 International Academic Publishing House (IAPH)
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
